基于碳减排治理全球变暖的碳排放权交易机制,探讨了碳交易能否兼顾企业效益与绿色效率,及企业减碳优化策略。通过匹配2006—2017年中国上市公司及所在地区数据,首先运用双重差分方法,总体衡量碳交易对企业要素投入产出及全要素生产率的影响。然后运用平行趋势、滞后两期、工具变量及安慰剂,检验碳交易双效模型的稳健性,并利用三重差分检验是否存在因企业性质不同而造成差异化影响。最后运用中介与调节效应方法,检验碳交易与全要素生产率的中介效应,并考察了绿色创新、市场化与政府补贴影响下有调节的中介作用。实证结果显示:碳交易对绿色全要素生产率、企业全要素生产率均有显著负向影响。碳交易促进碳减排,导致营业成本增加、劳动生产率降低,但同时也显著正向影响资本生产率,促进企业利润与收入增长。绿色全要素生产率在绿色创新、市场化和政府补贴显著的调节影响下,对碳交易与企业全要素生产率的关系起到部分中介作用。研究表明,碳交易在一定条件下能够实现绿色效率和企业效益双赢,碳交易的作用在于依次实现碳减排、企业全要素生产率提升和绿色全要素生产率提升,而绿色效率和企业效益协同尚处于"遵循成本"阶段。因此,要建立一套集市场化、政府奖惩和绿色创新为核心的碳交易体系,进一步健全绿色低碳的激励约束机制,加强绿色创新补偿,增强企业自主研发和协同创新能力,提升绿色技术转化率,优化绿色产业结构,完善配套环保标准和管理规范,诱导企业完成"创新补偿"的蜕变。

Carbon emission permit trade mechanism (CEPTM) is an effective measure of reducing carbon dioxide levels for controlling global warming. This paper discusses whether CEPTM can bring both business benefits and green efficiency as well as optimize strategies of the emission reduction. Relevant data of listed Chinese companies from 2006 to 2017 were collected to carry out the following test: Firstly,the DID method was used to measure the impact of CEPTM on enterprise total factor productivity (ETFP),green total factor productivity (GTFP) and input-output factors. Secondly,parallel trends,two-period lag,instrumental variables and placebo were used to test the dual-effect model of CEPTM; the DDD method was also used to test the robustness of the efficiency model. Finally,the mediating method was used to test the factors on the relationship between CEPTM and ETFP as well as the moderating effects of green innovation,marketization,and government subsidies. The result shows that: CEPTM had a significant negative impact on GTFP and ETFP; CEPTM reduced carbon emissions, resulting in higher operating costs and lower labor productivity,but it also had a significant positive impact on capital productivity,profits and income; GTFP had a partial mediating effect on the relationship between CEPTM and ETFP,positively moderated by green innovation,marketization,and government subsidies. The results indicated that under certain conditions the dual-effect mechanism of CEPTM could achieve a win-win situation and realize carbon emission reduction. But the coordination between business benefits and green efficiency was still in the stage of‘Following Costs'. Therefore,it is necessary to establish a guidance system combining green innovation with award and punishment measures implemented by the government to improve the incentive mechanism of low-carbon innovation. From the enterprise perspective,independent R&D and collaborative innovation should be further encouraged and the efficiency of green technology transformation enhanced; from the industrial perspective,the green industrial structure should be optimized and the supporting environmental protection standards improved. In this way,the transformation of the enterprises from the stage of‘complying with the cost'to that of‘being compensated by innovation'can be eventually achieved.