冯婷婷

• 1:国家信息中心博士后科研工作站
• 2:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

我国要实现在哥本哈根会议上承诺的减排目标,有赖于正确判断相关因素对我国CO2排放的影响强度和作用机理。减排目标的实现受诸多因素的影响,从生产层面到消费层面,从结构因素到效率因素都有涉及。本文从最终需求的视角,同时考虑生产和消费的影响因素,运用投入产出模型和对数平均Divisia指数分解法,考察了1997-2002、2002-2007年两个时段相关影响因素的变化对总排放变化的总贡献和部门贡献。研究结果表明,最终需求总量的不断增长是拉动总排放增加的主要驱动因素,重化工部门能耗强度的降低是促进减排的主要驱动因素;化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业部门中间投入技术的变动是影响总技术效应的主要部门因素;能耗结构、产业结构和消费构成的变化所拉动的减排效应呈波动状态。文章提出减排不仅要从生产层面更要从消费层面下功夫,不仅要提高技术效率还要注重调整结构。

关键词(KeyWords)： 最终需求;CO2排放;投入产出模型;LMDI分解

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 冯婷婷

参考文献(References)：

• [1]张友国.经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响[J].经济研究,2010,(4):120-133.[Zhang Youguo.EconomicDevelopment Pattern Change Impact on China’s Carbon Intensity[J].Economic Research Journal,2010,(4):120-133.]
• [2]Zhang Y G.Supply-side Structural Effect on Carbon Emissions inChina[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(1):186-193.
• [3]樊杰,李平星,梁育填.个人终端消费导向的碳足迹研究框架———支撑我国环境外交的碳排放研究新思路[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(1):61-68.[Fan Jie,Li Pingxing,Liang Yutian.Framework of Final Consumption Oriented Research on CarbonFootprints-New Idea of Research on Carbon Emissions Supportingthe Environmental Diplomacy of China[J].Advances in EarthScience,2010,25(1):61-68.]
• [4]朱勤,彭希哲,陆志明,于娟.人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(2):98-102.[Zhu Qin,Peng Xizhe,Lu Zhiming,Yu Juan.Analysis Model andEmpirical Study of Impacts from Population and Consumption onCarbon Emissions[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(2):98-102.]
• [5]冯婷婷.基于家庭消费模式的能源消费及碳排放研究[D].中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所博士学位论文,2010:79-98.[Feng Tingting.Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions based onHousehold Consumption Patterns[D].Beijing:Institute ofGeographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,2010:79-98.]
• [6]王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J].经济研究,2010,(2):123-136.[Wang Feng,Wu Lihua,Yang Chao.Driving Factors for Growth of Carbon Dioxide EmissionsDuring Economic Development in China[J].Economic ResearchJournal,2010,(2):123-136.]
• [7]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.[Xu Guoquan,Liu Zeyuan,Jiang Zhaohua.DecompositionModel and Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions for China:1995-2004[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(6):158-161.]
• [8]李艳梅,付加锋.中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(8):53-57.[LiYanmei,Fu Jiafeng.Structural Decomposition Analysis on CarbonEmissions Growth Embodied in Exports in China[J].ChinaPopulation,Resources and Environment,2010,20(8):53-57.]
• [9]李小平,卢现祥.国际贸易、污染产业转移和中国工业CO2排放[J].经济研究,2010,(1):15-26.[Li Xiaoping,Lu Xianxiang.International Trade,Pollution Industry Transfer and ChineseIndustries,CO2 Emissions[J].Economic Research Journal,2010,(1):15-26.]
• [10]张晓平.中国对外贸易产生的CO2排放区位转移分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):234-242.[Zhang Xiaoping.CarbonDioxide Emissions Embodied in China’s Foreign Trade[J].ActaGeographica Sinica,2009,64(2):234-242.]
• [11]沃西里.里昂惕夫著.投入产出经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1982.[Wassily Leontief.Input-output economics[M].Beijing:The Commercial Press,1982.]
• [12]刘起运.投入产出分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2006.[Liu Qiyun.Input-Output Analysis[M].Beijing:ChinaRenmin University Press,2006.]
• [13]Chung H S,Rhee H C.A Residual Free Decomposition of theSources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions:A Case of the KoreanIndustries[J].Energy,2001,26(1):15-30.
• [14]Ang B W,Liu F L.A New Energy Decomposition Method:Perfectin Decomposition and Consistent in Aggregation[J].Energy,2001,26(6):537-548.
• [15]Ang B W,Liu F L,Chew E P.Perfect Decomposition Techniquesin Energy and Environmental Analysis[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(4):1561-1566.
• [16]Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy:Which is the Preferred Method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
• [17]宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2009,19(3):18-24.[SongDeyong,Lu Zhongbao.The Factor Decomposition and PeriodicFluctuations of Carbon Emissions in China[J].China PopulationResources and Environment,2009,19(3):18-24.]
• [18]郭朝先.中国碳排放因素分解:基于LMDI分解技术[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(12):4-9.[Guo Chaoxian.Decomposition of China's Carbon Emissions:Based on LMDI Method[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,20(12):4-9.]
• [19]于鹏飞,李悦,高义学,等.基于DEA模型的国内各地区节能减排效率研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,S1:39-42.[YuPengfei,Li Yue,Gao Xueyi,et al.Study on Efficiency of EnergySaving and Emission Reduction by Region BasedDEA Model[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2010,S1:39-42.]
• [20]陈佳瑛,彭希哲,朱勤.家庭模式对碳排放影响的宏观实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2009,(5):68-79.[Chen Jiaying,PengXizhe,Zhu Qin.Impacts of Household Pattern on Carbon Emission[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2009,(5):68-79.]
• [21]王媛,魏本勇,方修琦,等.基于LMDI方法的中国国际贸易隐含碳分解[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2011,21(2):141-146.[Wang Yuan,Wei Benyong,Fang Xiuqi,et al.Using LMDIMethod in Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions Embodied inChina's International Trade[J].China Population,Resources andEnvironment,2011,21(2):141-146.]
• [22]赵欣,龙如银.江苏省碳排放现状及因素分解实证分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(7):25-30.[Zhao Xin,LongRuyin.The Status and Decomposition Model of Carbon Emissions forJiangsu Province[J].China Population,Resources andEnvironment,2010,20(7):25-30.]