中国城镇碳排放的区域差异和影响因素Regional Difference and Influencial Factors of China's Urban Carbon Emissions
宋德勇,徐安
摘要(Abstract)：
修正了IPCC关于电力碳排放系数的计算方法,根据中国(省市)能源平衡表估算了1995-2008年中国30个省市的城镇碳排放,划分了高、中、低三个不同排放区域,分析城镇碳排放的区域差异,采用STIRPAT模型分析城镇碳排放及区域差异的影响因素。结果表明,城镇碳排放是中国碳排放的主体;城镇碳排放总体快速增长趋势,2001年后表现尤为明显;中国城镇碳排放存在很强的区域差异,2008年高排放区域的八个省市城镇碳排放总量占全国城镇碳排放总量的50%以上;城镇居民人均收入对城镇碳排放影响最大,然后是城镇化率和能源强度,人口总量对碳排放影响较小;城镇居民人均收入增加、城市化进程不断推进、能源强度降低对城镇碳排放的影响存在区域差异,这种影响强度的差异是导致城镇碳排放存在区域差异的主要原因。一方面,我国城镇居民收入的不断提高和城市化进程的推进决定了城镇发展需要一定的碳排放空间,另一方面,城镇需要走可持续的低碳发展道路。
关键词(KeyWords)： 城镇碳排放;区域差异;影响因素;STIRPAT模型
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金资助项目(编号:10BJL034)
作者(Author): 宋德勇,徐安
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