田贵良,许长新

• 1:河海大学商学院

摘要(Abstract)：

虚拟水贸易是缺水地区从社会经济系统层面解决水资源短缺问题的一种策略选择,但由于长期的低水价,致使很多国家和地区的现实经济模式与虚拟水贸易战略的预期相悖。文章基于水资源投入产出分析方法,构建虚拟水贸易理论框架下的水价敏感性模型,分析水价上涨对各产业产品价格带来的影响。模型结果显示,区域水价提升对各产业产品价格的影响不仅在于该产业直接用水成本的上升,同时也不得不承受其他产业成本上升带来的间接影响,并且这两种影响作用是累加的。宁夏数据的实证得出,水价上涨对农业产品价格的影响最为强烈,批发和零售贸易餐饮业次之,对服务业产品价格的影响最弱。因此,可通过制定合理的水价调整策略,激励水资源极度缺乏的地区实施虚拟水贸易战略,避免过分强调传统的重农发展模式,促进产业结构向先进制造业和服务业转变,实现有限水资源更为合理的利用模式,达到经济发展与水生态的和谐局面。

关键词(KeyWords)： 缺水地区;虚拟水贸易;水资源投入产出;水价敏感性;宁夏

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41001377);; 教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(编号:09YJC790067);; 河海大学“211”工程三期重点学科(技术经济及管理)建设项目之子项目“长三角区域发展的技术经济及管理”

作者(Author): 田贵良,许长新

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