刘洁,李文

• 1:山东大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

近年来,中国CO2排放量显著增加,已引起社会各界的广泛关注。碳税作为最有效的经济手段之一,适时开征,不仅是我国应对气候变化、节能减排的要求,也是中国承担相应的国际责任的要求。本文根据中国各省(市、自治区)能源消费量及相关系数对相关能源产品使用产生的CO2排放量进行了核算,并依据国际实践经验拟定了三种不同情景的碳税税率。利用1999-2007年间的省际面板数据,通过面板数据模型定量分析了征收碳税对中国经济的影响,特别是对经济增长、能源消耗影响。研究表明:①征收碳税会降低社会总产出,对经济增长具有消极影响,从长期看,随着碳税体制完善,税率逐步提高,这种消极影响将逐渐减弱;②征收碳税可以提高能源的产出效率,降低能源要素的使用,减少CO2的排放;③碳税税率提高会减小劳动和资本要素之间的收入分配差距。因此,碳税开征具有明显的节能减排效果,且能有效地调整要素间收入分配。但是受中国现阶段经济发展水平的制约,碳税对中国经济冲击较大,短期内暂不适合开征。

关键词(KeyWords)： 碳税;经济增长;能源消费;要素收入分配

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家人事部博士后基金“税制改革中的国际竞争力原则:定位与影响”

作者(Author): 刘洁,李文

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